Issue 0: September 2026 baseline

This issue sets the baseline. Later issues report what changed against it. It is written for anyone facing a supplier's lobster price claim: an event client with an escalation clause, a planner comparing quotes, a small buyer asked to accept an increase. It reports market evidence. It does not estimate any supplier's cost and draws no conclusion about any contract.

The read

Lobster-specific prices entering September 2026 are flat to slightly below a year ago. Broad seafood prices are not. The producer price index for lobsters is 4.9% below August 2025. The producer price index for all unprocessed and prepared seafood is 11.5% above. A supplier who says seafood costs are up is citing a real number. It is not a lobster number.

The longer picture is tighter supply and higher dock prices. Maine landings fell from 132.6 million pounds in 2016 to a preliminary 78.8 million in 2025, down 41%. The annual ex-vessel price rose from about $4 a pound to about $6 over the same decade. That is the structural story a supplier can fairly point to. It is a ten-year trend, not a change since last season. Year over year, the dock price in September 2025 was 2% below September 2024.

Lobster is seasonal. Prices peak in late winter, when landings are lowest and the catch is hard shell, and fall through summer as the new-shell catch comes in. The 2026 winter peak ran higher than 2025's (the lobster PPI reached 334 in March against 315 the year before), then fell back to parity by August. A quote priced in March and an adjustment claimed in September compare two seasons, not two years.

The numbers

Two-year comparisons, where the record allows them: lobster PPI −3.9% against August 2024; seafood PPI +19.4%; food away from home +7.4%.

The explanation

Three prices describe the same lobster at different points in the chain, and they move together but not in step.

The ex-vessel price is what the boat gets at the dock. Maine's most recent September figure is $6.15 a pound (2025, preliminary). Import unit value is what live Canadian lobster costs as it enters through Portland: $8.41 a pound in July 2026. The counter price for a single 1.25 lb hard shell at two Maine retailers, $18.90 to $19.50, works out to about $15 a pound at the stated minimum weight. The spread between dock and counter is handling, grading, mortality, and margin. It is wide, and it is where most of a buyer's price lives.

Volume matters as much as price. Imports through Portland ran 12% below 2025 for January through July, and July alone was down 56%. Lower Canadian volume can mean less supply, less demand, or a shift in routing, and this record cannot tell which. Maine's own landings for 2026 will not be published until early 2027.

The seafood index and the lobster index diverged over the past year. The seafood PPI is up 19% over two years. The lobster PPI is down 4%. Whatever pushed seafood prices up did not push lobster with it. USDA's outlook puts fish and seafood inflation at 5.9% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027, with a 2027 range of −4.2% to +7.0%. USDA does not forecast lobster separately.

The uncertainty

The dock price is a year old. Maine DMR publishes monthly landings once a year, in February, and marks the latest year preliminary. There is no public 2026 ex-vessel series yet. Any claim about 2026 dock prices in Maine rests on private data.

July import figures are recent and subject to revision. NOAA trade data for the most recent months is routinely restated.

The producer price index for lobsters is an index, not a price. Its composition is not published in enough detail to say which products or channels drive it.

The consumer reference is thin. It rests on two sellers observed on two dates, eight days apart. Across all eight sellers and 152 live-lobster listings observed twice this month, 151 prices did not move. One did: seller D raised its 1 lb soft shell from $8.79 to $10.99 (+25%). One change in one listing is not a trend.

The chain comparison mixes dates. The dock price is September 2025; the import value is July 2026; the counter price is September 2026. The spread is illustrative, not a margin calculation.

The buyer's question

Ask the supplier three things before accepting a lobster-driven increase.

Which product: live, meat, or tail; what size and shell; what grade. Prices for these move differently, and a quote for 1.25 lb hard shell cannot be checked against a claim about meat.

Which dates: what date the original quote priced from, and what date the adjustment references. A March-to-September comparison is a season, not a market move.

Which evidence: what published series or supplier invoice supports the stated increase. The public series above are free. A supplier who cannot name a series or show an invoice is asking you to take the number on trust.

The record

Sources and retrieval, all September 22, 2026, run 2026-09-22T201642Z:

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, public API v1. PPI commodity indexes WPU02230503 (lobsters), WPU0223 (unprocessed and prepared seafood), WPUFD4111 (finished consumer foods); CPI-U CUUR0000SEFV (food away from home), CUUR0000SAF11 (food at home). Not seasonally adjusted. Latest month August 2026.
• NOAA Fisheries FOSS trade data, imports, HTS 0306320010 (live lobster, Homarus spp.), 2025 through 2027 queries. Unit value is dollars divided by kilos, converted at 2.20462 lb per kg. Portland, ME district and all districts. Latest month July 2026.
• Maine Department of Marine Resources, Maine Commercial Lobster Landings by month, county, and zone, file dated February 6, 2026, 2025 preliminary. Ex-vessel price per pound is value divided by pounds for the month, computed here.
• USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook, CPI forecast table, release covering July 2026.
• Field Assembly observation record: advertised prices at eight Maine direct-ship and counter sellers, captured September 11 and 19, 2026. Sellers appear here as letters A through H. Names and capture rules are on the methodology page. Record commit 0d1757f, file hash in evidence.json.

Method: every figure in this issue appears in numbers.json, regenerated from the data files by tools/issue.py. Every capture file, its URL, retrieval time, and SHA-256 are listed in evidence.json. Capture files are hashed into an external timestamp chain anchored by RFC 3161 tokens from two timestamp authorities, which show they existed unchanged by the anchor date. No OpenTimestamps proof was produced for this edition's anchor. An external timestamp shows when a captured record existed. It does not show that a source's figure was correct or that a quoted price was available to every buyer.

Corrections: none.

Next issue: after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September producer price indexes in mid-October 2026.